Poll: Campaign at early stage

Moving into the summer preceding the gubernatorial election, the public’s views of the incumbent Wisconsin governor remain lukewarm, says the most recent Badger Poll, which surveyed 524 randomly selected state residents by telephone from June 8-17.

But the populace is not really at all focused on the election campaign as yet, most challengers are not at all widely known, and neither the governor nor his putative opponents enjoy a clear advantage.

These are some of the findings of the most recent Badger Poll, which surveyed some 524 randomly selected state residents by telephone from June 8-17. This Badger Poll was conducted by the University of Wisconsin–Madison Survey Center and was paid for by private funds made available through the Chancellor’s Office and University Communications. The Capital Times is the media sponsor of this survey.

G. Donald Ferree, Jr., associate director for public opinion research at survey center, outlined the key findings as follows:

— Gov. Scott McCallum’s job ratings continue to be middling in the abstract. Overall, 3 percent rated him excellent, 32 percent good, 35 percent fair and 19 percent poor.

The pattern of the two middle categories comprising the bulk of the population, with relatively few choosing one of the “extreme” ratings, suggests something of a lack of passion in the public’s view. (For politicians like Bill Clinton, for example, impressions around the country tended to be more polarized).

— As one might expect, there is a partisan cast to views of the governor. More than half of all Republicans rated him excellent or good, as may be seen in the detailed tables following this summary. The corresponding figure among Democrats was less than one in five.

This question was included in the first Badger Poll conducted in March of this year (fieldwork from March 5-17). On that survey, 3 percent rated him excellent, 23 percent good, 40 percent fair, and 23 percent poor. That means that, compared to March, the shift is equivalent to a bit more than one resident in eight moving UP one point on the scale.

That poll showed McCallum standing less strong in the minds of state residents than his predecessor, a phenomenon that persists. In June, looking back on the previous term, 26 percent of state residents think Tommy Thompson did an excellent job, 42 percent good, 21 percent fair, and 9 percent poor.

— Although less than five months remain before the fall election, fewer than half of those surveyed say they are now paying either “a lot” or “some” attention to the people running for governor. Of these, by far the larger portion (36 percent) are paying “some” attention. Fewer than one in 10 claims to be paying “a lot” of attention. On the other side, one in three (33 percent) describes themselves as paying “only a little attention,” while about one in four (22 percent) opt for “none at all.”

–Three in 10 of those surveyed (30 percent) feel the governor deserves re- election, while half again as many (43 percent) would “rather see someone else as governor.” This suggests an opening for would-be challengers, Ferree says. Partisanship relates clearly to this, with two-thirds of Democrats looking to an alternative while Republicans say by a five-to-two margin that the incumbent should be returned.

— Another basic indication of strength or weakness can be found in “favorability” figures. The public can be quite positive about politicians as shown by the three in four (74 percent) who have a favorable impression of President George Bush, contrasted with about one in six (17 percent) whose stance is unfavorable.

The governor is neither as well known, nor as well liked. Overall, his favorability ratio is 39 percent-32 percent, meaning that seven in 10 are willing to give a general impression. Members of all three partisan groups are (roughly) equally likely to have an impression, but the balance shifts from 58 percent-10 percent favorable among GOP adherents to almost as strongly in the opposite direction (57 percent-18 percent) unfavorable among Democrats. On this question, Independents more closely resemble Republicans than they do Democrats.

— Jim Doyle (35 percent-15 percent) is the best known of the Democratic challengers, and favorable impressions outnumber unfavorable ones by more than two to one. At the same time, half of all state residents do not have (or are not willing to state) a clear enough sense to come down on one side or the other. Sentiment falls off from one-sidedly favorable (if one has an impression) among Democrats to evenly split among the fewer than one in two Republicans who take a stance.

The other three Democrats are much less well known. Overall, Tom Barrett (16 percent-7 percent) and Kathleen Falk (16 percent-9 percent) have similar profiles. Each does better among Democrats than Republicans, each does better among women than men (with the former group more likely to call themselves Democrats), thus there is not a strong sense of Falk being the “women’s candidate” for good or ill. Gary George is no better known than his rivals, but overall impressions (among the one in five who state them) are more likely to be negative than positive by a 15 percent-6 percent margin. He shows less of a partisan pattern than do others, however.

— Ed Thompson, at 16 percent favorable but 26 percent unfavorable, is better known than any of the Democrats except Doyle, but the unfavorable balance of opinion is a problem. Independents as a group come closely to splitting evenly. Democrats and Republicans resemble one another.

— Green party candidate Jim Young is largely unknown, with more than nine in ten failing to state an impression overall, and the handful who do have a general stance split evenly.

— The governor was paired with each of the four Democrats in a runoff. In every case, a sizable group availed itself of the opportunity to say that it hadn’t “really formed an opinion.” This should not be surprising, Ferree says, given the generally low levels of awareness of candidates, and is a warning that one must be careful not to interpret them as what “would happen if the election were held today.”

That said, all the “runoffs” are close. McCallum and Barrett each garner the support now of one in four (24 percent), with fewer than half taking a stance. Republicans and Democrats are more or less mirror images, with half of each group backing “their” candidate, and only a handful “defecting.” Among Independents, what sentiment there is splits evenly.

The overall results for McCallum versus Doyle (24 percent-25 percent) are virtually identical. Partisan groups, too, have the same profile for Doyle as they did for Barrett. If Falk is the “nominee,” even more (over six in ten) are not willing not to come down in one camp or the other. Those who do, give McCallum at most a modest edge (21 percent-17 percent). Republicans are more likely to take a position than either Independents or Democrats.

The level of fence-sitters in a McCallum-George matchup is similar to that found when Falk is the Democratic alternative, but the governor has a larger group of “initial backers” (25 percent-11 percent). But this must be viewed in the context of George’s largely being an unknown in the state, and less favorably viewed.

— Third party alternatives are awaiting a breakthrough. When respondents were reminded of Thompson the Libertarian and Young the Green candidate, almost two thirds (63 percent) denied there was “a serious chance” that they “would wind up voting for either Thompson or Young.” The proportion that named either or both as a possibility ranged from one in six among GOP adherents to one in four among Democrats. Thompson is more commonly named than Young, by 18 percent compared to 12 percent if one counts in those who say they may vote for either.

— One interesting pattern is that women as a group tend to be less likely to be engaged in the campaign so far than are men as a group. On every single question asked on this topic, women were more likely to claim low attention, or to say they had not made up their minds, or to not come down on one side or the other. The magnitude differs sharply depending on the issue.

Thus, women were fewer than 10 points more likely not to rate McCallum, to be following the campaign only a little or less, or to express an opinion on whether or not they would consider voting for a third party candidate.

Except for Falk, women were clearly less likely to have an impression about each of the candidates. The differences were most telling when it came to Jim Doyle and Ed Thompson. In the runoffs, the gender difference is smallest for Barrett, but Falk versus McCallum has almost as great a tendency for women not to take a stand as is the case for George and Doyle.

Some of this may be due to women’s lesser tendency to call themselves Republicans compared to men, in a campaign where there is one central incumbent GOP politician, but the gender differences are bigger than the partisan ones, suggesting that something else is going on.